{"id":1003178018,"date":"2023-09-11T14:44:51","date_gmt":"2023-09-11T18:44:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.trucknews.com\/?p=1003178018"},"modified":"2023-09-21T20:48:39","modified_gmt":"2023-09-22T00:48:39","slug":"next-round-of-epa-carb-emissions-standards-will-be-toughest-yet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.trucknews.com\/sustainability\/next-round-of-epa-carb-emissions-standards-will-be-toughest-yet\/1003178018\/","title":{"rendered":"Next round of EPA\/CARB emissions standards will be toughest yet"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Previous rounds of EPA heavy-duty emissions standards have been challenging to reach, but truck manufacturers have yet to face the type of challenge coming down the pike in 2027.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both the EPA and California Air Resources Board (CARB) will take different ways to the same end goal, which is zero emission vehicles. The national and California requirements realign in 2027, which Sean Waters, vice-president product compliance and regulatory affairs for Daimler Truck North America (DTNA) said that realignment by 2027 is needed. He was speaking at FTR\u2019s Transportation Conference in Indianapolis Sept. 11-14.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Navistar<\/a>
(Photo: Navistar)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Daimler\u2019s own goal is to produce 100% zero emissions vehicles for the Triad market (North America, Asia and Europe) by 2029.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s not going to be a straight line,\u201d Waters said. \u201cIt\u2019s going to be a winding road.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Goran Nyberg, Navistar\u2019s commercial vice-president of commercial operations, said there\u2019s a stark difference to the 2027 emissions requirements and previous EPA go-rounds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cOver the years, it has been quite the smooth ride,\u201d he said of previous emissions regimes. \u201cThere were a lot of changes but no real change to the business model.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Charging infrastructure needed<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Navistar\u2019s targets are to produce 50% zero-emissions vehicles by 2030 and 100% by 2040. But for battery-electric vehicles, the biggest roadblock is the lack of charging infrastructure, a factor outside the control of Navistar and other truck makers. There has been a proposal by EPA to modify the 2027 standards, but Waters said modifying the previously announced Obama administration-era requirements would be counterproductive.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe think at the end of the day, EPA issued an achievable rule that\u2019s going to deliver the environmental benefits we want,\u201d said Waters. \u201cIt would be a bad precedent if changed. It makes it really hard as an OEM to make the financial commitments we need to be able to succeed with these rules.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His biggest concern, however, is the readiness of utilities and the electrical grid to build out the infrastructure needed to support BEVs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe success of GHG Phase 3 hinges on infrastructure, which is entirely outside our control,\u201d Waters said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

DTNA built its own heavy-duty chargers in Portland, Ore., to support its fleet of new EVs \u2013 the eCascadia, eM2 and electric buses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"eCascadia<\/a>
(Photo: Provigo)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt took two years to build on land we already owned with acceptable power already in the area,\u201d he cautioned. \u201cIt turns out building actual infrastructure on property you own is not the greatest challenge; it\u2019s getting power from the utility.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are some 3,000 utilities and 49 public utility commissions in the U.S., Waters said. \u201cThey all have their own rules and regulations on what it takes to have big power available. \u201cIn general, we found utility regulators do not build up capacity until there is demand for the product, and regulations don\u2019t appear to count in demonstrating demand.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It may take six months to build up a charging station with one utility, and six to eight years with another, Waters warned. \u201cWe have trucks sold today that customers haven\u2019t been able to take delivery of because there\u2019s no place to charge them,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And even where charging infrastructure is available, total cost of operation parity with diesel will need to be achieved.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nyberg said collaboration between OEMs and other stakeholders will be needed to meet the 2027 and future standards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe are pretty well prepared when it comes to the vehicles,\u201d he said. \u201cBut we are quite dependent on the infrastructure that needs to be in place to support and enable the deployment of EVs.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s not just handing over the keys anymore,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dealers will have a role to play beyond 2027 as well, as ever-increasing percentages of vehicles sold will have to be of the zero emissions variety. A dealer that places an order for 1,000 trucks will have to take a certain number of BEVs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt sounds harsh but it\u2019s the reality with the proposed regulations that we have,\u201d said Nyberg.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will there be a pre-buy?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

In previous rounds of EPA emissions standards, fleets scrambled to pre-buy trucks before the stricter rules \u2013 and their higher costs \u2013 took effect. Will there be a disruptive pre-buy in the months leading up to 2027? Eric Starks, chairman of FTR, said it is too soon to say. Freight market dynamics will determine the extent to which a pre-buy occurs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhat we don\u2019t know is what the cost [of ZEVs] is,\u201d Starks said. Back in 2002 there was a pre-buy of about 9,000 Class 8 trucks, with purchases pulled forward to the third quarter of the previous year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt took just one quarter to get back to normal,\u201d said Starks. In advance of the EPA07 emissions rules there was another Q4 pre-buy, which took a longer three to four quarters to work through. Fleets may take their cues from the overall freight market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhat happens if the freight market takes off in 2025?\u201d Starks asked, noting OEMs won\u2019t be able to keep pace with an onslaught of pre-buys. \u201cLet\u2019s say there\u2019s a weakening in freight in 2025. Now our forecast is lower, and you have the ability to build those trucks, so it\u2019s really going to depend on where we are in the cycle and how big this plays out. It\u2019s very possible when we look at all the risks that they can\u2019t pre-buy. It\u2019s something we\u2019re going to have to pay attention to.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Previous rounds of EPA heavy-duty emissions standards have been challenging to reach, but truck manufacturers have yet to face the type of challenge coming down the pike in 2027. Both […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":46,"featured_media":1003174920,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_EventAllDay":false,"_EventTimezone":"","_EventStartDate":"","_EventEndDate":"","_EventStartDateUTC":"","_EventEndDateUTC":"","_EventShowMap":false,"_EventShowMapLink":false,"_EventURL":"","_EventCost":"","_EventCostDescription":"","_EventCurrencySymbol":"","_EventCurrencyCode":"","_EventCurrencyPosition":"","_EventDateTimeSeparator":"","_EventTimeRangeSeparator":"","_EventOrganizerID":[],"_EventVenueID":[],"_OrganizerEmail":"","_OrganizerPhone":"","_OrganizerWebsite":"","_VenueAddress":"","_VenueCity":"","_VenueCountry":"","_VenueProvince":"","_VenueState":"","_VenueZip":"","_VenuePhone":"","_VenueURL":"","_VenueStateProvince":"","_VenueLat":"","_VenueLng":"","_VenueShowMap":false,"_VenueShowMapLink":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7559],"tags":[11706],"company":[45776,7981,6990],"keyword":[8572,8118,162508],"news-category":[13014,20509],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNext round of EPA\/CARB emissions standards will be toughest yet - 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